Do Price Dynamics Undermine Food Security in Nigeria?
Keywords:
Food Security, Price Dynamics, Inflation, Institutional Quality, Macroeconomic Policy, Consumer Price Index
Abstract
This study investigates the long-run effects of price dynamics on food security in Nigeria. Drawing on annual data from 2002 to 2022, it employs a Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) model to assess how macroeconomic indicators, specifically the consumer price index (CPI), GDP per capita, labour force participation, population, and institutional quality, affect a composite Food Security Index (FSI). The results reveal a significant positive relationship between CPI and food security, suggesting that moderate inflation may reflect supply-side responses or sectoral growth. The results also reveal that GDP per capita and labour force participation both exhibit strong positive effects, highlighting the role of income and employment in enhancing food access. In contrast, institutional quality shows a significant negative association with food security, challenging theoretical expectations and pointing to governance implementation gaps despite apparent institutional improvements. Policy recommendations include investments in domestic food production, supply chain logistics, and inflation-indexed safety nets, particularly for vulnerable populations.
References
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Baltensperger, E. (2023). The return of inflation. Zeitschrift Für Schweizerische Statistik Und Volkswirtschaft/Schweizerische Zeitschrift Für Volkswirtschaft Und Statistik/Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, 159(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s41937-023-00114-x
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Cassimon, D., Fadare, O., & Mavrotas, G. (2022). The combined effect of institutional quality and capital flows on food and nutrition security and undernourishment in Sub-Saharan Africa. PLoS ONE, 17(10), e0275345. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0275345
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Demeshko, A., Astbury, C. C., Lee, K. M., Clarke, J., Cullerton, K., & Penney, T. L. (2024). The role of corruption in global food systems: a systematic scoping review. Globalization and Health, 20(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s12992-024-01054-8
Dev, S. M., & Pandey, V. L. (2022). Dietary diversity, nutrition and food safety. In India studies in business and economics, 39–82. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-0763-0_3
Eslami, E., & Baghestany, E. (2020). Modeling the impact of inflation uncertainty on food sector growth. Journal of Economic and Social Research, 22(2), 133–152.
Espinoza, R. A., Chen, W., & Nyenkan, J. (2024). Surging food prices and inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa: Stylized facts and policy lessons (IMF Working Paper No. 2024/188). International Monetary Fund. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2024/06/18/Surging-Food-Prices-and-Inflation-in-Sub-Saharan-Africa-Stylized-Facts-and-Policy-Lessons-548017
Ezeudu, T. S., & Okolie, C. A. (2025). Systemic Impacts of Policy Formation on Street-Level Bureaucracy in Nigeria: A Multi-Level analysis. International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, IX(III), 2568–2589. https://doi.org/10.47772/ijriss.2025.90300201
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Gahamanyi, A., & Tchouassi, G. (2025). Is food security impacted by price dynamics? Proof from African nations. Food Economics – Acta Agriculturae Scandinavica, Section C. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.feco.2024.100384
Gazdar, H., & Mallah, H. B. (2013). Inflation and food security in Pakistan: Impact and coping strategies. Development Policy Review, 31(6), 647–665. https://doi.org/10.1111/1759-5436.12028
Global Hunger Index (2024). Global Hunger Index Scores by 2024 GHI Rank. Available at https://www.globalhungerindex.org/ranking.html
Guo, X., & Islam, M. (2025). Advancing food security and proposing future strategies: A comparative performance analysis of Global Food Security Index and Annual Population Changes of top five populous countries. PLoS ONE, 20(5), e0324231.
Ha, J., Kose, M. A., Ohnsorge, F., World Bank, Prospects Group, Brookings Institution, CEPR, & CAMA. (2021). Inflation During the Pandemic: What Happened? What is Next? In World Bank, Prospects Group. https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/bc1qre8jdw2azrg6tf49wmp652w00xltddxmpk98xp-0350012021/related/WP-inflation.pdf
Hodjo, M., Dalton, T. J., & Nakelse, T. (2024). Welfare effects from food price shocks and land constraints in Niger. Journal of Agriculture and Food Research, 15, 100976. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jafr.2024.100976
Ibrahim, H. A., & Baqutayan, S. M. (2024). Assessing Agri-Food Policies for Food Security: A Systematic literature review of implementation performance and influencing factors. International Journal of Academic Research in Economics and Management Sciences, 13(4). https://doi.org/10.6007/ijarems/v13-i4/24108
National Bureau of Statistics. (2020). Consumption expenditure pattern in Nigeria 2019. https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/elibrary/read/1094
Ntimane, Q. F., & Madzivhandila, T. S. (2024). Purchasing power as a major determinant of food security in Rural and Semi-Urban areas: A South African household experience. E-Journal of Humanities Arts and Social Sciences, 2077–2088. https://doi.org/10.38159/ehass.20245135
Ogundari, K. (2017). Food price volatility and household welfare in Nigeria. African Development Review, 29(4), 503–515. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.12283
Okodua, H., & Ogbokor, C. A. (2023). Effect of food inflation on household welfare in Nigeria. African Journal of Sustainable Development, 13(1), 59–76.
https://doi.org/10.4314/ajsd.v13i1.4
Okpe, I. J., & Ikpesu, F. (2021). Effect of inflation on food imports and exports. International Journal of Development and Sustainability, 10(3), 167–181.
Olayiwola, M. A., Oladeji, J. O., & Adesiji, G. B. (2023). Perceived effects of food price inflation on households’ welfare in Oyo State, Nigeria. Journal of Agricultural Extension, 27(1), 1–12. https://doi.org/10.4314/jae.v27i1.1
Omobowale, E. B., Olutayo, A. O., & Alabi, R. A. (2023). Rising cost of food prices and food insecurity in Nigeria and its implications on public health. African Journal for the Psychological Study of Social Issues, 26(1), 132–140.
Omoke, P. C. (2010). Food prices and inflation targeting in Nigeria. African Journal of Economic Policy, 17(2), 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1080/10130950.2010.10540518
Olorunmola, O. R., Adegboyega, A. A., & Adetunji, M. O. (2024). The impact of production cost, exchange rate and inflation rate on food prices in Nigeria: Consequences for food security. Global Scientific and Academic Research Journal of Multidisciplinary Studies, 5(6), 44–52.
Osabohien, R., Osabuohien, E., & Ohalete, P. (2019). Institutional quality and food security in Nigeria. Bio-based and Applied Economics 8(2), 161-178. http://oaj.fupress.net/index.php/bae/article/download/8929/7834/12500
Oyinbo, O., Chamberlin, J., Abdoulaye, T., & Maertens, M. (2021). Digital extension, price risk, and farm performance: Experimental evidence from Nigeria. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 104(2), 831–852. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajae.12242
Pawlak, K., & Kołodziejczak, M. (2020). The role of agriculture in ensuring food security in developing countries: Considerations in the context of the problem of sustainable food production. Sustainability, 12(13), 5488. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12135488
Raifu, I. A., Oshota, S., & Ojo, O. (2025). On the Nexus Between Terrorism and Tourism in Nigeria: What Role Does Institutional Quality Play? Available at SSRN 5320016.
Raifu, I. A., & Oladejo, A. F. (2024). The role of institutional quality in the nexus between agricultural expenditure and agricultural production in Nigeria. International Journal of Sustainable Economy, 16(3), 265–286. https://doi.org/10.1504/ijse.2024.139526
Roy, P. K., & Rahman, M. M. (2022). The impact of Indian food inflation on food security in Bangladesh. South Asian Journal of Social Studies and Economics, 15(2), 1–10.
Sadikeen, S. S., Haque, N., Hossain, M. M., & Uddin, M. J. (2024). Impact of food price inflation on stunting in under five aged children in Bangladesh. Health Economics Review, 14(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s13561-024-00549-9
Sangwan, N., & Kumar, S. (2021). Labor force participation of rural women and the household’s nutrition: Panel data evidence from SAT India. Food Policy, 102, 102117.
Tersoo, P. (2013). Agribusiness as a veritable tool for rural development in Nigeria. Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences. https://doi.org/10.5901/mjss.2013.v4n12p21
Uddin, I., Ahmad, M., Ismailov, D., Balbaa, M. E., Akhmedov, A., Khasanov, S., & Haq, M. U. (2023). Enhancing institutional quality to boost economic development in developing nations: New insights from CS-ARDL approach. Research in Globalization, 7, 100137. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resglo.2023.100137
Ukamaka, O. B., Asomba, I. U., & Kelechukwu, A. E. (2023). Price stability and economic development in Nigeria: Issues and challenges. Journal of Policy and Development Studies, 14(2), 56–69. https://doi.org/10.4314/jpds.v14i2.5
World Governance Indicators (2023). World Governance Indicators: Interactive Data Access.
https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/worldwide-governance-indicators/interactive-data-access
Akano, O. I., Oderinde, F. O., & Omotayo, A. O. (2023). Agricultural yield, food nutrition and dietary energy supply in Nigeria: Evidence from nationally representative data. Journal of Agriculture and Food Research, 11, 100525. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jafr.2023.100525
Ayadi, F. S., & Jeremiah, O. A. (2016). Price instability, exchange rate volatility and the Nigerian economy: An empirical analysis. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 7(4). https://www.iiste.org/Journals/index.php/JEDS/article/view/28998
Baltensperger, E. (2023). The return of inflation. Zeitschrift Für Schweizerische Statistik Und Volkswirtschaft/Schweizerische Zeitschrift Für Volkswirtschaft Und Statistik/Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, 159(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s41937-023-00114-x
Bizikova, L., De Brauw, A., Rose, M. E., Laborde, D., Motsumi, K., Murphy, M., Parent, M., Picard, F., & Smaller, C. (2022). Achieving sustainable food systems in a global crisis: Nigeria. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2022-09/sustainable-food-systems-global-crisis-nigeria.pdf
Cassimon, D., Fadare, O., & Mavrotas, G. (2022). The combined effect of institutional quality and capital flows on food and nutrition security and undernourishment in Sub-Saharan Africa. PLoS ONE, 17(10), e0275345. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0275345
CBN (2025). Inflation Rates. https://www.cbn.gov.ng/rates/inflrates.html
Clements, K. W., & Si, J. (2017). Engel’s Law, diet diversity, and the quality of food consumption. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 100(1), 1–22. https://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aax053
Demeshko, A., Astbury, C. C., Lee, K. M., Clarke, J., Cullerton, K., & Penney, T. L. (2024). The role of corruption in global food systems: a systematic scoping review. Globalization and Health, 20(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s12992-024-01054-8
Dev, S. M., & Pandey, V. L. (2022). Dietary diversity, nutrition and food safety. In India studies in business and economics, 39–82. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-0763-0_3
Eslami, E., & Baghestany, E. (2020). Modeling the impact of inflation uncertainty on food sector growth. Journal of Economic and Social Research, 22(2), 133–152.
Espinoza, R. A., Chen, W., & Nyenkan, J. (2024). Surging food prices and inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa: Stylized facts and policy lessons (IMF Working Paper No. 2024/188). International Monetary Fund. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2024/06/18/Surging-Food-Prices-and-Inflation-in-Sub-Saharan-Africa-Stylized-Facts-and-Policy-Lessons-548017
Ezeudu, T. S., & Okolie, C. A. (2025). Systemic Impacts of Policy Formation on Street-Level Bureaucracy in Nigeria: A Multi-Level analysis. International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, IX(III), 2568–2589. https://doi.org/10.47772/ijriss.2025.90300201
Falana, S. O., Akinsanya, S. M., Awoyinka, L. O., Sopelu, R. L., Adewoye, O. J., & Lawal, Q. A. (2024). Effect of exchange rate volatility on food price inflation: Evidence from the Nigerian economy (1990–2021). Journal of Economics and International Finance, 16(3), 39–54. https://academicjournals.org/journal/JEIF/article-full-text-pdf/2BD31C572549.pdf
FAO (2024). The State of Food Insecurity and Nutrition in the World: Financing to end Hunger, Food Insecurity and Malnutrition in all its forms. FAO, available at https://openknowledge.fao.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/d5be2ffc-f191-411c-9fee-bb737411576d/content
Fasanya, I. O., & Olawepo, F. (2018). Determinants of food price volatility in Nigeria. Agricultura Tropica et Subtropica, 51(4), 165–174. https://www.agricultura.mendelu.cz/wcd/w-rek-agriculturaits/fulltexts/ats_2018_4_fasanya.pdf
Gahamanyi, A., & Tchouassi, G. (2025). Is food security impacted by price dynamics? Proof from African nations. Food Economics – Acta Agriculturae Scandinavica, Section C. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.feco.2024.100384
Gazdar, H., & Mallah, H. B. (2013). Inflation and food security in Pakistan: Impact and coping strategies. Development Policy Review, 31(6), 647–665. https://doi.org/10.1111/1759-5436.12028
Global Hunger Index (2024). Global Hunger Index Scores by 2024 GHI Rank. Available at https://www.globalhungerindex.org/ranking.html
Guo, X., & Islam, M. (2025). Advancing food security and proposing future strategies: A comparative performance analysis of Global Food Security Index and Annual Population Changes of top five populous countries. PLoS ONE, 20(5), e0324231.
Ha, J., Kose, M. A., Ohnsorge, F., World Bank, Prospects Group, Brookings Institution, CEPR, & CAMA. (2021). Inflation During the Pandemic: What Happened? What is Next? In World Bank, Prospects Group. https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/bc1qre8jdw2azrg6tf49wmp652w00xltddxmpk98xp-0350012021/related/WP-inflation.pdf
Hodjo, M., Dalton, T. J., & Nakelse, T. (2024). Welfare effects from food price shocks and land constraints in Niger. Journal of Agriculture and Food Research, 15, 100976. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jafr.2024.100976
Ibrahim, H. A., & Baqutayan, S. M. (2024). Assessing Agri-Food Policies for Food Security: A Systematic literature review of implementation performance and influencing factors. International Journal of Academic Research in Economics and Management Sciences, 13(4). https://doi.org/10.6007/ijarems/v13-i4/24108
National Bureau of Statistics. (2020). Consumption expenditure pattern in Nigeria 2019. https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/elibrary/read/1094
Ntimane, Q. F., & Madzivhandila, T. S. (2024). Purchasing power as a major determinant of food security in Rural and Semi-Urban areas: A South African household experience. E-Journal of Humanities Arts and Social Sciences, 2077–2088. https://doi.org/10.38159/ehass.20245135
Ogundari, K. (2017). Food price volatility and household welfare in Nigeria. African Development Review, 29(4), 503–515. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.12283
Okodua, H., & Ogbokor, C. A. (2023). Effect of food inflation on household welfare in Nigeria. African Journal of Sustainable Development, 13(1), 59–76.
https://doi.org/10.4314/ajsd.v13i1.4
Okpe, I. J., & Ikpesu, F. (2021). Effect of inflation on food imports and exports. International Journal of Development and Sustainability, 10(3), 167–181.
Olayiwola, M. A., Oladeji, J. O., & Adesiji, G. B. (2023). Perceived effects of food price inflation on households’ welfare in Oyo State, Nigeria. Journal of Agricultural Extension, 27(1), 1–12. https://doi.org/10.4314/jae.v27i1.1
Omobowale, E. B., Olutayo, A. O., & Alabi, R. A. (2023). Rising cost of food prices and food insecurity in Nigeria and its implications on public health. African Journal for the Psychological Study of Social Issues, 26(1), 132–140.
Omoke, P. C. (2010). Food prices and inflation targeting in Nigeria. African Journal of Economic Policy, 17(2), 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1080/10130950.2010.10540518
Olorunmola, O. R., Adegboyega, A. A., & Adetunji, M. O. (2024). The impact of production cost, exchange rate and inflation rate on food prices in Nigeria: Consequences for food security. Global Scientific and Academic Research Journal of Multidisciplinary Studies, 5(6), 44–52.
Osabohien, R., Osabuohien, E., & Ohalete, P. (2019). Institutional quality and food security in Nigeria. Bio-based and Applied Economics 8(2), 161-178. http://oaj.fupress.net/index.php/bae/article/download/8929/7834/12500
Oyinbo, O., Chamberlin, J., Abdoulaye, T., & Maertens, M. (2021). Digital extension, price risk, and farm performance: Experimental evidence from Nigeria. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 104(2), 831–852. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajae.12242
Pawlak, K., & Kołodziejczak, M. (2020). The role of agriculture in ensuring food security in developing countries: Considerations in the context of the problem of sustainable food production. Sustainability, 12(13), 5488. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12135488
Raifu, I. A., Oshota, S., & Ojo, O. (2025). On the Nexus Between Terrorism and Tourism in Nigeria: What Role Does Institutional Quality Play? Available at SSRN 5320016.
Raifu, I. A., & Oladejo, A. F. (2024). The role of institutional quality in the nexus between agricultural expenditure and agricultural production in Nigeria. International Journal of Sustainable Economy, 16(3), 265–286. https://doi.org/10.1504/ijse.2024.139526
Roy, P. K., & Rahman, M. M. (2022). The impact of Indian food inflation on food security in Bangladesh. South Asian Journal of Social Studies and Economics, 15(2), 1–10.
Sadikeen, S. S., Haque, N., Hossain, M. M., & Uddin, M. J. (2024). Impact of food price inflation on stunting in under five aged children in Bangladesh. Health Economics Review, 14(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s13561-024-00549-9
Sangwan, N., & Kumar, S. (2021). Labor force participation of rural women and the household’s nutrition: Panel data evidence from SAT India. Food Policy, 102, 102117.
Tersoo, P. (2013). Agribusiness as a veritable tool for rural development in Nigeria. Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences. https://doi.org/10.5901/mjss.2013.v4n12p21
Uddin, I., Ahmad, M., Ismailov, D., Balbaa, M. E., Akhmedov, A., Khasanov, S., & Haq, M. U. (2023). Enhancing institutional quality to boost economic development in developing nations: New insights from CS-ARDL approach. Research in Globalization, 7, 100137. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resglo.2023.100137
Ukamaka, O. B., Asomba, I. U., & Kelechukwu, A. E. (2023). Price stability and economic development in Nigeria: Issues and challenges. Journal of Policy and Development Studies, 14(2), 56–69. https://doi.org/10.4314/jpds.v14i2.5
World Governance Indicators (2023). World Governance Indicators: Interactive Data Access.
https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/worldwide-governance-indicators/interactive-data-access
Published
2026-01-16
Section
Articles
